Is Boris Johnson about to fall into an election panic?

Everything’s still to play for in the final week before the vote, writes John Rentoul

Race for No 10: the polls are narrowing with a week to go (Getty)

Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC political editor, reported yesterday that there was nervousness in the Conservative election HQ entering the final week of the campaign. Is this just an attempt by the Tory campaign chiefs to warn their activists against complacency, or are there good reasons for Boris Johnson to be worried?

The main reason is that an average 10-point lead in the opinion polls is not enough to be sure of victory. Although that translates into a majority of 24 seats in parliament, according to Electoral Calculus, this is sensitive to small changes in the share of the vote. It would take only 2 per cent of voters to switch sides to wipe out that small majority altogether – or an error in the opinion polls of an equivalent size.

Indeed, The Independent’s own pollster, BMG, is at one end of the range of estimates of public opinion, showing a six-point lead for the Conservatives, which could produce exactly the same election result as last time.