Syrian civil war: US must tip the balance towards the moderates

Mr Obama should seriously consider the offer of ground troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Civilians react following a reported Syrian regime air strike in a rebel-controlled area in Aleppo (Getty Images)

The Syrian conflict can no longer be described as a stalemate. Regime forces, aided by Russian air power, are threatening to cut off Aleppo, a key rebel stronghold. If they can retake the city, it will be the opposition’s most significant defeat since the revolution began in 2011.

As was feared – by this newspaper, among others – Bashar al-Assad and his allies used the cover of UN-brokered peace talks to step up their military campaign, in an attempt to decisively swing the outcome. They had no intention of pursuing ceasefires, as was clear from increased Russian bombardments in the run-up to the now-postponed Geneva talks.

The US has played into Mr Assad’s hands. With a view to de-escalating conflict, the White House eased support for the rebels ahead of Geneva and pressurised Gulf nations to slow arms deliveries. This exposed the moderates to an onslaught from which they may not recover.

Two paths lie ahead. The first will see Russia and Mr Assad gradually crush the rebels. That will involve mass killing: a UN report into Mr Assad’s rule, and treatment of prisoners, concluded that his policies thus far amounted to the calculated “extermination” of all those who oppose him. The second will see Western and Gulf powers attempt to tip the balance back towards a stalemate from which negotiations can start. This may require more political capital than Barack Obama is willing to spend. But it is the right thing to do.

Mr Obama should seriously consider the offer of ground troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He should establish a no-fly zone to protect as many civilians as possible, since Turkey is no longer letting them cross the border. He should drop aid to besieged towns. If the US retreats further, it will have betrayed the Syrian people, and turned its back as the humanitarian catastrophe enters what may be its darkest phase.