Would Boris Johnson survive a Tory no-confidence vote?

It is not impossible that momentum suddenly shifts against Johnson in the hours after a vote is announced. Let’s see, writes Adam Forrest

We may not have to wait much longer to find out (Reuters)

The Queen’s jubilee offers a welcome break for Boris Johnson. In fact, the long weekend offers a welcome break for weary Conservative MPs, even the ones pushing for the prime minister’s removal over Partygate.

But Westminster remains in a state of feverish anticipation. Many are convinced we are tantalisingly close to a Tory leadership vote – and could even see a no-confidence vote announced when MPs return on Monday.

His Downing Street team and loyal ministers remain defiant, dismissing the rebels’ chances of triggering a vote anytime soon. Even if the contest does get triggered in the coming days, Johnson’s closest allies insist that he would win. Are they delusional? Let’s run through the numbers we know about: