The defining issue in British politics today: trust

Mr Duncan Smith need no longer be ashamed of the charges of being 'boring' and 'bald'

For some time now the political talk has been of Britain standing shoulder to shoulder with the United States. But for Iain Duncan Smith, this has been a week of rubbing shoulders with the US President and other right-wing leaders at the International Democratic Union conference in Washington. There is no greater prize for a Conservative Opposition leader than to be seen against the backdrop of the White House.

It must have been galling, these past few months, for the Tory leader to see umpteen photo opportunities of Tony Blair and George Bush backslapping each other in the aftermath of 11 September. But Mr Duncan Smith's own opportunity to tread the international stage has reminded us all that, ultimately, the political – as opposed to the diplomatic – traffic between Mr Bush and the United Kingdom is via the Republican and Conservative parties.

It is often difficult to assess just how much benefit there is to a British party leader by stressing their links to sister political parties abroad. Many here recoiled in horror at the Reagan/Thatcher years. Similarly, the Clinton/Blair years caused guffaws and yawns. But the undoubted exchange of political ideas across the Atlantic means that party developments in one country have implications and an influence on their counterparts in the other. Which is why we must take seriously Mr Duncan Smith's deepening friendship with the Republican Party

If it was just a question of looking at the rest of Europe and the US, Mr Duncan Smith should merely have to wait for the pendulum to swing here, as it has done everywhere else. He is wise enough to know, however, that this will not be automatic. But just as he has been anxious to pick up new ideas in Washington, similarly Mr Blair and his international "Third Way" gang (meeting at the same time here with Bill Clinton) have been doing their own spot of navel-gazing to analyse why the centre-left is falling apart everywhere – except, so far, in Britain.

There is no doubt, however, that the right is in the ascendant both in the US and across much of Europe. And the tide may finally be turning here. Last weekend the latest poll knocked Labour's lead down to 6 per cent. A clear downward trend for Labour has been established. More important, the same poll recorded that trust in New Labour has evaporated. I used to think that, in the words of Mr Clinton, "it's the economy, stupid" would be the only basis upon which political power would shift between one party and the other. But since we are apparently, according to Peter Mandelson, "all Thatcherites now", the electorate may now be looking for other criteria on which to judge the main parties.

It is entirely possible that the state of the economy, apart from the level of taxation, will barely feature at the next election campaign. Instead "trust" – just as with "sleaze" in 1997 – could be the defining reason for the governing party to suffer. The recent reports of spin doctors seeking to call into question the motives of members of the public, as well as MPs who table hostile parliamentary questions, break new ground over the Government's partiality and lack of trustworthiness.

Of all the epithets thrown at the Tory leader, "untrustworthiness" is the one that fails to stick. And if "trust" becomes the new political watchword, Mr Duncan Smith need no longer be ashamed of the charges of "boring" and "bald". Which is why he can also afford to take a higher profile on the euro when it becomes the central political issue. The news that Rupert Murdoch has not been seduced by the Blair charms and intends to use his media outlets to give the anti-euro voice the loudest hearing should embolden Mr Duncan Smith to play his full part in the public proceedings.

International gatherings of the kind taking place in Washington normally embolden their participants. Few come away with anything but a spring in their step, and while Mr Duncan Smith has good advisers in the shape of Dominic Cummings, they provide, by comparison, undue caution. And they can sometimes unnecessarily depress the troops, which Mr Cummings did last week when he said the biggest threat to the pound's survival is the Tories. He is wrong. The biggest threat to the survival of the pound is New Labour and Tony Blair.

In his speech in Washington, Mr Duncan Smith stuck to his recent themes of delivering on improved public services, welfare reform, under-achievement in schools and on crime. And he paid tribute to George Bush "for showing us the way". But he stopped short of recognising that the biggest way George Bush showed the American voters the advantage of the right over the Democrats was that he still believes, as did Thatcher and Reagan before him, in lower taxes.

If there is a lesson for the British right, it is that there is still a case worth making for the fundamentals of a smaller state and low taxation. William Hague was popularly supposed to have lost last year because he banged on about Europe, crime, asylum and lower taxes. On the other hand, 12 months later and with the benefit of hindsight (and the Government's ransacking the Tory manifesto on asylum) it may be that his crime was merely to have been in advance of his time. But the time is certainly coming for the Tories to be listened to again.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk