David McKittrick: In Ireland, too much clarity can be a bad thing

The sight of Trimble winning, while the IRA and Sinn Fein lost, has generated much nationalist gall

Once again the peace process in Northern Ireland has stalled in a swirl of unanswered questions and muttered accusation. Must things always take so long; must every advance be countered with a setback; must it always be this tough?

The partial answers seem to be that, yes, it seems fated to be forever a highly protracted business which will try everyone's patience. And yes, it will always be tough. The greatest consolation though, after all the operatics, is that nobody died when the hoped-for advance failed to happen. This is important, since not so long ago disputes like this often led to gunfire and funerals.

When I recently asked Martin McGuinness if there was any scenario in which the IRA might go back to war, he replied: "I have to say I don't even see such a prospect on the horizon." As this indicates, it is not a case of back to the war. In fact, it's not even a case of back to the drawing board, for Plan B is just Plan A, put back a few months. We are not condemned to war-war, simply to yet more jaw-jaw.

Nonetheless, Tony Blair's decision to postpone elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly until the autumn has inflicted considerable political damage. McGuinness and Ian Paisley make unlikely bedfellows but they both voiced genuine anger at the postponement. And their feelings were part of a wave of hostile feeling sent coursing through the process by the failure of the recent initiative. It has been a bruising time, with the already tiny supply of trust depleted further.

Paisley and his people are masters of melodrama, skilled at projecting and amplifying fury and indignation, but this time their annoyance was real. In nearly every election in recent times they have taken another slice from David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, and they relished another helping. But the Paisleyites can at least look forward to the autumn, expecting that their gains will come then.

The anger runs deeper in Irish nationalism and republicanism. A huge question, vital to the prospects of eventual success, remains unanswered: what on earth happened within Sinn Fein and the IRA during the last stages of the negotiations? What happened to the previously almost boundless guile and cunning of people such as McGuinness and Gerry Adams?

As usual, the exact mechanics of what happened inside the republican movement remain shrouded in obscurity. But what is clear is that this phase of negotiation closed with unrelieved pressure still squeezing in on the movement.

Along the way the IRA and Adams lost something of their dignity, as both the IRA and Sinn Fein repeatedly scrambled to provide the Prime Minister, and hence the Ulster Unionists, with more and more rhetorical concessions. The carefully cultivated republican mystique suffered a series of blows, with the IRA and Sinn Fein looking flustered as they were forced from the oracular to the particular in the cause of providing clarity. Both republican solemnity and obscurity were dented, yet in the end it was still not enough for London or Dublin or Trimble.

It may at some stage emerge whether the republicans were outmanoeuvred or whether somebody inside the IRA gave the thumbs down in the last days. Either way, republicans yielded a fair amount to their ancient foes, and got nothing concrete in return. When everyone goes back to the table later in the year the primary purpose will be, in Blair's words, "to really sort out the last bits of this".

That means that the first item on the agenda will be the list of activities – punishments, surveillance, arms procurement and so on – which everybody says the IRA must promise to give up. It's an open question whether they will or will not ever give the right assurances.A cynical reader of the various IRA texts now made public could easily argue that what they conceded was just words; a more optimistic observer can hold that the rhetorical can still be valuable.

In this instance, however, the negotiations became fraught towards the end, which suggests that what Blair asked became impossible. If and when the IRA ever does bid a decisive farewell to arms it will be done with as much solemnity and pride as they can muster, shorn of any connotation of surrender.

Interestingly, there is no sign, in public at least, that any grassroots republican anger is being directed at the movement's leadership. Rather, anger is being vented at London and even more sharply at Dublin, which is portrayed as weak in its negotiations with the British. Dublin, in turn, sharply dissented from the decision to postpone the Belfast elections.

Anglo-Irish relations are too important, however, to allow for too much public rowing, for the vital reason that if the two governments quarrel nothing seems to go right. This inhibition will to some extent mask the degree of Irish nationalist exasperation at Blair, who has already made the conciliatory gesture of travelling to Dublin on his birthday to soothe hurt Irish feelings. Most Irish nationalists believe that drawing the fangs of the IRA, properly achieved, is an honourable and highly desirable aim. Much of their annoyance comes from the fact that it all, to nationalists' eyes at any rate, got so inextricably linked with the election question.

Everybody wanted an election except Trimble, and in the end his opinion prevailed in Downing Street. The suspicion was that behind the scenes it was Trimble, rather than the Prime Minister, who was calling the shots. Blair put forward the undeniable point that an election held this month would not lead to the formation of a government. Some saw this as commendably frank, yet at the same time it sounded to some ears like putting pragmatism before principle.

Now it goes without saying that not everyone calling for the poll – for example, the Shinners (as the Unionists call Sinn Fein) and the Paisleyites – have over the years been absolutely committed to the pure springs of democracy. But calling off the poll, apparently at the behest of a single party, sounded to the nationalist psyche like crass manipulation rather than pragmatic common sense. Republicans thus accuse Blair of being concerned above all else to "Save Dave".

It's a bit like the old saying about making laws and making sausages: it is inadvisable to look too closely at either process. The current buzzword is clarity, yet perhaps there are times when too much transparency can be counter-productive. The republican community wanted the election, want the Assembly back, want more momentum in the process. But Trimble is for them a necessary but not particularly welcome ingredient, not in any sense a desirable or welcome partner. The sight of him winning this time round, while the IRA and Sinn Fein lost, has generated much nationalist gall.

None of this ill-feeling means that the next attempt to break the deadlock will fail. There have been far greater difficulties in the process before now which have eventually been successfully overcome. There is no huge sense of crisis around, but the next few months will provide a real test of the assumption that the process has such underlying strength that it can withstand some months in which there may be precious little progress.

But a lot of running repairs will have to be carried out and a lot of emotions soothed before all sides get back to the table and once again apply themselves to the maddeningly familiar and frustrating problems of the peace process.