Liverpool or Man City? The five factors that will decide this season's Premier League title race

Will City defend their crown, or can Liverpool hang onto their lead at the top of the Premier League table? We assess the key factors that will decide the 2018/19 season

With just thirteen matches remaining this season, Liverpool currently lead Manchester City at the top of the Premier League by a slender three points.

At the start of last month, an unbeaten Liverpool had the chance to extend the gap at the top to a huge ten points when they travelled to the Etihad. But goals from Sergio Aguero and Leroy Sane saw City run out 2-1 winners, blowing the title race wide open.

Since then a stuttering City have lost 2-1 to Newcastle at St James’ Park, only for Jurgen Klopp’s side to fail to take advantage, with successive draws against Leicester and West Ham.

And are Tottenham back in contention? Spurs may be without the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli, but they have won three on the bounce and now sit just five points behind league leaders Liverpool.

Here, we take a look at the five factors which could decide this thrilling title race.

Two trips to Old Trafford

Manchester United remain unbeaten under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, winning nine of their ten matches since the Norwegian replaced Jose Mourinho on an interim basis. They truly are the jokers in the pack approaching the final few weeks of the season.

United are the jokers in the pack (Getty)

Liverpool travel to Old Trafford on February 24, the weekend after the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie against Bayern Munich. It doesn’t much help that City now sit just three points behind them in the league with a superior goal difference. Assuming both sides win this weekend, then defeat to United would hand City the opportunity to go top.

City meanwhile travel across town on March 16, the weekend after their second leg against Schalke. It’s surely a better time to play United – particularly as they could already have their Champions League tie wrapped up by that point.

Squad depth and injuries

So far, Liverpool have had better luck than Manchester City with injuries this season. Kevin de Bruyne, who is undoubtedly City’s best and most important player, has started just ten Premier League matches this season, while they have also been without Benjamin Mendy, another automatic starter when fully fit.

Kevin de Bruyne has missed most of the season (Getty)

However the tables could be about to turn. Mendy is in contention to feature this evening against Everton and De Bruyne has returned and is steadily working his way back to full fitness.

Liverpool, however, are beginning to feel the squeeze of a long and demanding campaign. They currently have six players out injured – only Arsenal (7) and West Ham (8) are missing more – and are particularly stretched at the back, with Dejan Lovren (hamstring), Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) and Joe Gomez (ankle) all sidelined.

They also lack the squad depth of Manchester City, one of the richest clubs in the world. Liverpool’s bench looked particularly thin in this week’s draw with West Ham, with the likes of Alberto Moreno, Divock Origi, Curtis Jones and Rafael Camacho helping to make up the numbers.

City’s many cup commitments

Pep Guardiola’s admirable aversion to ever fielding a second string line-up means that Manchester City are still involved in all three cup competitions this season: something that could potentially work against them come the end of the season.

City, who are still involved in the FA and League Cups, have already played five more games than their direct rivals. Factor in February’s final against Chelsea and potentially four more matches in the FA Cup, and that jumps up to ten – and that’s without taking the Champions League into consideration.

Liverpool face Bayern Munich in the Champions League (Bongarts/Getty)

Ed Malyon: Manchester City's biggest challenge when it comes to winning the Premier League may not be the Premier League at all.

Pep Guardiola's side have to virtually win all their remaining games in the league, of course, with a tough trip to Everton on Wednesday night this week followed swiftly by Chelsea coming to the Etihad, but those league fixtures are only a quarter of the champions' competition commitments this season.

After two games in short succession in which they must hunt down Liverpool, City then play three cup games on the spin - FA Cup against Newport County, Champions League at Schalke then a League Cup final at Wembley against Chelsea.

Four different competitions in four games will be reminder of just how many fronts City are battling on right now, and while you'd back them to get past Schalke in Europe, that only results in another pair of fixtures being added to their already busy schedule.

In retrospect, it may prove that Liverpool were wise to bow out of the domestic knockout competitions early - even if that wasn't their intent. Similarly, should Jurgen Klopp's side come unstuck against Bayern Munich this month then they will likely become overwhelming favourites for the Premier League title.

With nothing else to play for and City overloaded with more cups than a ceramics factory, it is hard to see how Liverpool wouldn't win their first Premier League title. Either way, how City do in these cup competitions - with potentially eight more fixtures to squeeze into the next few months - will likely define everybody's season.

The month of May

This week, Pep Guardiola predicted that this title race will go down to the wire. “I'm pretty sure the winner will be the last fixture or the last two,” he said at his press conference ahead of tonight’s match against Everton. “I'm sure of that.”

Pep Guardiola thinks the title race will go down to the wire (Rex)

Should the teams really be neck and neck come May, it is Liverpool who have the easier fixtures. They travel to relegation-threatened Newcastle on May 4, before finishing the season at home to Wolves. They beat both of those teams comfortably earlier on in the league season.

Manchester City meanwhile host Leicester before a trip to Brighton. They also face Tottenham late into their campaign, on April 20.

Tottenham’s two London derbies

… speaking of Spurs, news flash: successive draws for Liverpool mean that Mauricio Pochettino’s battered and bruised Tottenham Hotspur are only five points behind the league leaders, back in third. Considering how many injuries have had to contend with, that’s quite the achievement.

Tottenham have been grinding out results (Getty)

That’s not to say Spurs are back in the title race, exactly. They were desperately poor against Fulham, only slightly better against Watford, and needed a late goal from returning hero Son Heung-min to see off Newcastle.

Whether they can keep themselves in the title mix or not at the business end of the season largely depends on a pair of London derbies, at the end of February and beginning of March. Take four points away to Chelsea and then at home against Arsenal, and they will still be in contention with a much needed three week break from the Premier League on the horizon. Drop more than three points, and they are all but finished.