Business View: Yes, they do really mean it. In America they're desperate to have a nice day

In the US they keep mentioning both the 'r' word and the 'd' word with worrying regularity

Flight attendants on US airlines always say something like: "Thank you for flying with us today." Akin to the "have a nice day" line you get in American stores, it comes out like a recorded message, as if a talking Barbie is serving you. But flying on United Airlines last week, the thank you seemed a little more sincere, especially as it was followed by the comment "We need the business."

It must be tough working for a US airline at the moment. The collapse of business after 9/11 threatened the survival of many of the main carriers (nothing new, veterans of PanAm, TWA, Braniff et al might say), and small or large, they have been filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, or restructuring their debts, or cutting jobs, costs and wages, or any or all of those three. Last week American Airlines announced another $4bn (£2.5bn) of cost cuts. And United, while I was in the air, managed to reschedule payments on a $500m loan from a German bank to stay out of bankruptcy. It is also in talks with unions about an across-the-board 18 per cent pay cut for staff. (Nor is our own Brit- ish Airways immune: last week's good figures were down to cost cutting, not a recovery in business, and BA's slimming pro- gramme is entering its more tricky stage.)

This latest round of belt-tightening, though, is not a post-9/11 reaction. The fallout from the terrorist atrocities has largely worked its way through the system (bringing extra business for the private security giant Wackenhut, I couldn't help but note). This is an economic problem, connected to the fragile and uncertain nature of US consumer spending that is hampering attempts to pull the world's largest economy away from recession.

There is a saying that recession is when your neighbour is out of work, and depression is when you lose your job. In the US they keep mentioning both the "r" word and the "d" word with worrying regularity.

The technology sector, so long the backbone of the new paradigm that appeared to deliver inflation-free growth in the 1990s, is still on its back. Attempts to breathe life into it by Microsoft, through its new Tablet PC, are not working. Apple last week predicted the worst Christmas sales for a decade. And Cisco spooked the markets with a downbeat forecast (anyone who knows John Chambers, the Mr Micawberish Cisco boss, will realise why analysts were unsettled by the word "flat").

Financial companies are under the cosh. The biggest victim of Wall Street's post-Cisco shudder was JP Morgan, a bank once considered so blue chip that no one questioned its ability to thrive in bad times. But since its merger with Chase Manhattan, which brought with it a dowry of appalling loans, Morgan has lost its reputation and its balance sheet. Many say it may soon lose its boss, Bill Harrison. It could even go bust, which would be like Fort Knox finding it had lost its gold speculating on Enron shares.

But what about the Republican gains in the mid-term elections and the half-point interest rate cut? The former is being seen as good for business, giving some legislative certainty for the next couple of years and allowing George Bush to crack on with his pro-business agenda. But Mr Bush has presided over a 32 per cent fall in the S&P 500 and people are not sure he favours the right businesses.

As for the half-point cut in interest rates, there are two issues here. One is the perception that cutting rates so sharply is just an admission of the trouble the US is in. The other is the fear of Japanese-style deflation, with asset values stagnating or even falling and making people feel less wealthy.

It is only when you are in the US that you realise the effect of the media on the economy. In Britain, the financial news tends to stay on the City pages, but Wall Street gets its own slot on American TV news bulletins just before sport and the weather. If the eggheads on Wall Street say there's a recession going on, John Doe on Main Street thinks he might just hang on to his Chevy pick-up for another year and GM sees its sales slump. It is a vicious circle that is proving desperately hard to break.

j.nisse@independent.co.ukj.nisse@independent.co.uk