The latest tax rise marks the suspension of Rishi Sunak’s leadership campaign

As national insurance goes up – the chancellor’s prospects go down, writes John Rentoul

Overall taxes are still going up after July (REUTERS)

There was a moment, in the days before 25 January, when Rishi Sunak had a realistic prospect of being prime minister by now. That was the day Dame Cressida Dick, the Metropolitan Police commissioner, announced that she was investigating the Downing Street parties.

It came as such a surprise that it took a day or two for everyone to realise that the police investigation meant that Sue Gray’s civil service report would have to be filleted before publication – and that Boris Johnson had therefore avoided a vote of no confidence among Conservative MPs, because the most embarrassing details of lockdown law-breaking would be withheld for the time being.

That was the day, then, that the chancellor’s leadership hopes were postponed, but it is only now that his undeclared leadership campaign has been suspended. The prime minister’s position is not in immediate danger, but even if it were, it is no longer obvious that Sunak would win the contest to succeed him.