Leadership contests are usually good for parties

The Conservatives have taken a beating in the opinion polls, but that may be about to change, writes John Rentoul

In government, leadership changes can advertise renewal (Getty)

In the last few days before Boris Johnson announced his resignation, the opinion polls suggested that the Conservatives were losing support. As the prime minister protested bitterly that “we’re actually only a handful of points behind in the polls”, a series of polls were published putting Labour 11 to 14 points ahead.

Labour spirits were also lifted the next day when Durham constabulary announced that Keir Starmer had “no case to answer” over allegations that coronavirus laws had been broken at a campaign event last year. But that was a victory in a war that was already over, and those polls were a snapshot of the past.

With each of the two leadership contests that the Conservatives have held since they formed a government in 2010, the party has gained support. When Theresa May presented herself as the unexpected beneficiary of other candidates’ stumbles, the voters liked what they saw. Three years later, when she had failed to make Brexit mean Brexit, the Tories recovered in the polls as Johnson, still at that point the most popular politician in Britain, won a comfortable victory.