Victory at all costs is the only way for England

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Rebirth of the All Black legend

A quintet of debutants, five tight forwards with fewer than 30 caps between them and a goal-kicker who has kicked precisely no goals in Test rugby: the All Blacks may be in town, but England really ought to be able to deal with it on this occasion by beating New Zealand for the first time since 1993. But what constitutes a proper beating in these unusual circumstances? A dozen points? Fifteen? Twenty? It is worth remembering that in more than 360 international matches since 1903, the All Blacks have suffered only one 20-point defeat. It is the most remarkable statistic in rugby, and possibly the most extraordinary in any team sport.

England will be inconsolable if they fail to win at Twickenham this afternoon; indeed, defeat would rock Clive Woodward's regime to its very foundations. The quality of his planning for the 2003 World Cup in Australia would be openly questioned – certainly, he could expect to be asked how, in light of his problems against a New Zealand second-string, he might set about defeating their first-string – and the pressure on him and his charges to deliver against the Wallabies and the Springboks in the coming week would be more intense than anything he experienced in the aftermath of the Grand Slam misfire in Dublin 11 months ago.

On the other hand, the idea that these All Blacks, tinged with green as they are, will miss sufficient numbers of tackles or concede enough penalties to allow England to better the 21-point winning margin recorded by Australia in Sydney in 1999 seems far-fetched to the point of being Tolkienesque.

A win of any description will do Woodward and company today. New Zealand may not have won a World Cup since 1987, but only a complete lunatic takes liberties with the silver fern.

Woodward captured the scale of the challenge in succinct fashion yesterday. "Are New Zealand the ultimate benchmark in our game?" he mused. "Let's put it this way. I regard Australia as the No 1 team in the world, for the very simple reason that they hold the World Cup. They will be the team to beat next time, not just because they are hosting the competition, but because they have proved to us all that they know how to win big tournaments. However, in terms of the history of rugby union, the All Blacks are the No 1 team."

While he was in no mood to discuss next year's issues on the grounds that there was a fairly major issue to be dealt with inside 24 hours – "I really don't give a monkey's about the World Cup; I keep getting asked about it and I'll keep straight-batting it," he snapped – Woodward knows full well that if things go wrong this afternoon, England will struggle to generate the momentum vital to any side harbouring ambitions of global supremacy. The next time they encounter the Blacks will be in Wellington, the windy city of the North Island, next June, and if they travel there with an inferiority complex, they will suffer the consequences.

If this is a wickedly difficult game for Woodward – very definitely one to have kept him awake well into the small hours – his former assistant coach will have slept easily in his bed last night. John Mitchell, who left Twickenham in 2000 and surfaced as the All Black coach 16 months later, decided long ago that he would experiment with new blood over the three weeks of this short European tour, and sure enough, the likes of Aaron Mauger, Justin Marshall, Chris Jack, Reuben Thorne, Richie McCaw and Scott Robertson have already started their off-season back home. They were pretty tired anyway, having played Super 12, Tri-Nations and National Provincial Championship rugby since March.

Is Keith Lowen, the much-discussed Waikato midfielder, a better prospect than Mauger at second five-eighth? Can Marty Holah, the form breakaway forward in the NPC, perform the back-row bandit's role as effectively as McCaw? Is Kees Meeuws, the injury-prone Auckland prop, really operating at his best after two years of anonymity? Mitchell will receive the answers this afternoon, and log them into his World Cup programme. Unlike Woodward, he freely admits that this weekend's game impacts on next year's tournament.

New Zealand have played under-strength at Twickenham before. In 1983, they pitched up in London without their first-choice tight forwards and lost 15-9. Two of the newcomers in that pack, Scott Crichton and Gary Braid, never played for their country again. Their successors 19 years on – the likes of Andrew Hore, Ali Williams and Keith Robinson – will be uncomfortably aware of that fact (rugby history is part of the national curriculum for wannabe All Blacks) and will sweat blood to ensure they avoid any similar fate.

Yet it is in that precise area of the forward confrontation that England should dominate the game and lay sufficiently strong foundations to guarantee victory. New Zealand do not have a Martin Johnson, a Danny Grewcock or a Phil Vickery, massively punishing ball-carriers who hit rucks and mauls with maximum force and tackle like, well, like All Blacks. The tourists will not fear England out wide, and their back-row unit will not concede an inch. All Black loosies never do. But the grunt-and-groan battle should be England's for the taking, especially if the conditions are wet and heavy.

"There will be no hiding place out there, but then, we don't intend to hide," Woodward promised. "When I first coached an England side against the All Blacks five years ago, I felt I was stepping into the unknown and it made me nervous. But we've matured as a group since 1997, I'm sure of that. The nerves have been supplanted by a wonderful sense of excitement and anticipation."

That should go for each and every member of the sell-out 75,000 audience this afternoon. The All Blacks come here once in a blue moon, and English victories are rarer still. It will be quite a cabaret.