Football: Leeds looking to rejoin the open race: Phil Shaw assesses the chances of more upsets in today's football programme

JUST as they did 12 months ago, Leeds United go into their final match of the year playing host to the League leaders. To the bewilderment of those who will pack Elland Road for today's visit of Norwich City, the similarities end there.

As Howard Wilkinson, Leeds' manager, said yesterday when asked about the differences between the championship race then and now: 'The League is nothing like it was a year ago.' He was referring to the number of challengers for their title - seven was his conservative estimate - though the club's followers may favour a more wistful interpretation.

Last December, when it was already virtually a two-horse race, the Leeds faithful saw them draw against Manchester United. While a disappointing result for Leeds, it kept alive hopes of a joyful and triumphant spring. After all, they had still lost only once in 27 League and cup games and conceded a mere 20 goals.

The comparative figures this season, with exactly half the inaugural Premier League campaign completed, are 13 defeats and 51 goals against. Alex Ferguson, the Manchester United manager, said before this Christmas that he kept expecting 'the Leeds surge'. If and when it comes, the effect may be one of pulling clear of the relegation zone.

When Norwich visited Leeds on the final day of last season, the silverware was being presented. Having avoided the drop a week earlier on that occasion, they have effectively traded places with Leeds, returning with a three-point lead. Whereas a draw would keep them top, anything less than a Leeds victory might force Wilkinson into urgent transfer activity.

Norwich supporters, increasingly anxious after seeing an eight- point advantage frittered away, today find themselves in the unusual position of wanting Ipswich to win. Their nearest neighbours, unbeaten in 12 matches, receive second-placed Blackburn, who expect their 22-goal talisman Alan Shearer to shrug off a knee 'click' sustained during Saturday's victory over Leeds.

Manchester United went into Boxing Day as joint favourites with Aston Villa, a status they have to themselves after their Brian McClair-inspired fightback at Hillsborough and Villa's calamity at Coventry. Forewarned is forearmed, and United will take anything but lightly a young, quick Sky Blues team who, paradoxically, have been rejuvenated by a 30-year-old hardly renowned for his sprinting, Mick Quinn.

Trevor Francis, the Sheffield Wednesday manager, said after Saturday's 3-3 thriller that this could be United's year. The same was said, of course, after that match at Leeds a year ago, and many other times during the past 25 seasons.

Villa, meanwhile, are at home to Arsenal tonight in a match which, like the one at Leeds, is desperately important to both clubs. Arsenal, with one goal and two points from six games, need consistency according to their manager George Graham. In the sardonic view of Ron Atkinson, Villa already have it. 'At least we're consistent,' he said after the low of Highfield Road. 'Useless at the back, useless in midfield and crap up front.'

Graham is toying with using David O'Leary at sweeper, possibly at the expense of Kevin Campbell, who has scored only twice this season. Villa, and in particular Dean Saunders, are badly missing Dalian Atkinson, who will again be absent with a stomach strain.

Chelsea, away to Wimbledon, are unlikely to have Mick Harford back and may leave out Graeme Le Saux as a disciplinary measure following his shirt-throwing huff on being substituted against Southampton. Crystal Palace, up in the dizzy heights of 17th place, must replace the injured Gareth Southgate at Middlesbrough.

Liverpool and Manchester City, tucked in behind the pack pursuing the leaders, meet at Anfield in another fixture where a point would be of little use to either. Nottingham Forest also need more than a draw at Tottenham, a meeting of purist philosophies which has produced a surprising number of sendings-off in recent seasons.

Newcastle, 12 points clear in the First Division, visit Oxford in the day's only all-ticket affair. However, the biggest crowds outside the Premier League are likely to be at Sunderland, where Grimsby are the visitors; at Derby, who are seeking to improve an abysmal home record at the expense of Portsmouth; and Stoke, unbeaten in 17 games and with a seven-point advantage in the Second, who take on fourth-placed Rotherham.

Match reports, pages 18 and 19

(Photograph omitted)