Irish 'no' vote threatens EU expansion plan

Ireland delivered a stunning rebuff to the EU yesterday, when voters rejected the Nice Treaty, threatening a political crisis to cast doubt on Europe's plans for eastward expansion.

Irish voters rejected the treaty by a vote of 529,478 against and 453,461 in favour, the chief returning office, Peter Green, yesterday told a packed hall at the Customs House in Dublin.

The unexpected referendum "No" vote was a hefty political blow for Brussels, coming from a country where support for the EU has been strong ­ and one that has hugely benefited from European financial aid. The decision by Irish voters, amid a 33 per cent turn-out, has given the country an instant reputation as Europe's most ungrateful nation.

Opinion polls had showed a strong majority in favour. But the low turn-out by supporters of the treaty opened the way for those against it, who were highly exercised by issues like neutrality, abortion and the loss of EU subsidies.

The treaty's rejection now raises the prospect that the timetable for the admission of new countries may be slowed because the EU, which needs all 15 member states to ratify the Nice agreement enlargement, can begin. The treaty ­ negotiated at a marathon summit last December ­ puts in place the institutional changes to allow the admission of a further 12 member states, mostly from former Communist countries.

By late afternoon 18 of the 41 constituencies had been declared against the treaty with only two in favour. On a low turn-out, "No" campaigners clinched their victory by claiming that ­ under the treaty ­ Ireland would lose influence in the EU, forfeit its neutrality and have to start paying out to support the new nations joining from eastern Europe.

But hostility to Brussels has been stoked by a rebuke from the European Commission over the handling of the Irish economy. The implications of the referendum are now expected to dominate next week's Göteborg summit of EU heads of government. Other European governments are waiting for the Irish government's reaction, but officials suggested last night that Ireland could be offered official assurances about its neutrality and about the limits of the Europe's Charter of Fundamental Rights ­ which some campaigners suggested could undermine Ireland's laws on abortion.

When Denmark rejected the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 it was offered four opt-outs, in areas including monetary union and defence. It held a second referendum, which approved the treaty the following year.

The European Commission insisted that the result would not threaten the admission of new countries to the EU. "The outcome of a referendum in one country cannot block the EU's most important project," Günter Verheugen, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, said at a press conference in the capital of Slovenia, Ljubljana.

Many will see the referendum result as a slap in the face from a nation that has cleverly milked the EU system for billions of pounds ­ getting back Ir£6 for every Ir£1 it contributed to the budget ­ and then voting "No" when the cash threatened to run dry.

This is harsh on those who campaigned successfully against the treaty. Part of the problem is that successive Irish governments have failed to encourage a meaningful debate about European identity or the responsibilities that go with EU membership, and instead the country has remained focused on the apparently inexhaustible flow of EU cash.

Europe has always been presented to Irish voters as a goose that would forever lay a golden egg at the Irish government's front door. The Irish commentator Mary Holland wrote this week that: "What has been signally lacking some of political leaders is any sense of a vision of Europe, which looks beyond the usual fumbling in the till."

Ireland is the sole EU member holding a referendum on the treaty as its constitution requires voter approval for any treaty affecting the country's sovereignty or neutrality.

And for the first time since Ireland joined the EU the government was campaigning for an EU treaty without the benefit of a cash inducement. Ireland's financial bonanza is set to run out in 2006 and the country ­ which was once lumped together with Spain, Portugal and Greece as one of the "poor four" ­ could become a net contributor to the EU budget. It will immediately lose out on the lucrative structural funds that have modernised roads and infrastructure across the country.

As a result, the government parties floundered throughout the referendum campaign. Although the entire government and the opposition, the trade unions, the leadership of all the main farming organisations, big businesses and the Irish Catholic Church joined forces to urge a "Yes" vote, they seemed bereft of any good reasons for doing so.