Mbeki will tell Mugabe that regime must change

Three African presidents will fly to Zimbabwe's capital, Harare, today in the most serious attempt so far to persuade Robert Mugabe to step down.

Thabo Mbeki, President of Zimbabwe's powerful neighbour South Africa, will be joined by Bakili Muluzi of Malawi and the Nigerian leader, Olusegun Obasanjo. They are now said to accept that Mr Mugabe's departure is the only possible starting point for resolving the Zimbabwe crisis.

Although few Zimbabweans are expecting an announcement of regime change at the end of the one-day visit, many regard the mission as the beginning of the end of Robert Mugabe's uninterrupted 23-year rule. .

Senior officials in Mr Mbeki's government insist that the South African President is finally ready to work hard to secure Mr Mugabe's departure from office. Mr Mbeki knows his plans depend on Mr Mugabe's co-operation and so he will try not to annoy the Zimbabwe leader.

The United States, backed by Britain, is pushing for a solution that would see Mr Mugabe replaced by a member of the ruling Zanu-PF party. The new President would then call a constitutional conference and organise elections to be monitored by the international community. America, Britain and South Africa have indicated that the country's former finance minister, Simba Makoni, is a suitable interim figure to take over from Mr Mugabe.

A constitutional amendment for Mr Mugabe to retire without an immediate election would require the opposition to co-operate. Mr Mbeki and his colleagues will also meet the main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, of the Movement for Democratic Change. Mr Mbeki may have kind words for Mr Mugabe in public but his officials insist that in private he will encourage him to quit. To heighten the pressure, President George Bush is sending Walter Kansteiner, his special adviser on Africa, to the region this week.

Mr Mugabe, 79, has hinted that he might step down in favour of a member of his own party. Quoting an unnamed analyst, a practice often used to air the views of the Information Minister, Jonathan Moyo, the Zimbabwean Sunday Mail newspaper said Zanu-PF had the credentials to rule, while the opposition was "a British creation".

Well-placed sources in the Mbeki government said South African officials had discreetly met opposition representatives to discuss an exit plan for Mr Mugabe.

Embattled Zimbabweans have pinned their hopes on Mr Mbeki providing a mechanism to end their political and economic misery. "We want to look back at Mbeki and say this great man became our saviour," said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of Zimbabwe's largest civic group, the National Constitutional Assembly. "No one wants history to record Mbeki as the greatest betrayer of the Zimbabwean people."

Amnesty International is calling for a United Nations resolution condemning Zimbabwe for human rights abuses, on the ground that Mr Mugabe's violations of human rights constitute a serious threat to regional security.