Ireland: Politicians jostle for position

AS VOTES in Friday's referendum were being counted Northern Ireland's political parties were preparing for the next test - elections to the Northern Ireland assembly. And as peace comes closer politics gets harder.

Talk of a "purge" of the Ulster Unionists by its leader, David Trimble, coincided with a formal suggestion of an electoral pact between Sinn Fein and John Hume's SDLP. Both ideas reflect the unfamiliar terrain in which the parties find themselves.

Despite the skill with which he has played his hand, Mr Trimble faces formidable problems. Fewer than half his 10 MPs campaigned for the Good Friday peace accord, which was also opposed by the party's former leader, Lord Molyneaux.

That raises the prospect of Ulster Unionists being the largest group elected to the assembly but being split between supporters and opponents of Mr Trimble - depriving him of the backing he needs to become first minister.

For the Unionist cause this could be disastrous. Backers of Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party and rebel Ulster Unionists would obstruct the workings of the assembly (particularly if the first minister post fell to the SDLP). As one source put it: "In those circumstances, world opinion would come crashing down on the Unionists. They would be in a worse position than ever."

So, can Mr Trimble force his constituency parties to select candidates loyal to him and to the agreement and make it workable? Yesterday, there was more than a hint from Ken Maginnis, the party's defence and security spokesman and a supporter of the Yes campaign, that he will try. The constituency parties have, he said "obligations" to observe the democratic mandate "to pick up the spirit of the treaty and referendum and put something tangible in place".

Constitutionally, the Ulster Unionist constituency parties guard their independence in the way that Conservative constituencies on the mainland did before the last election. Mr Trimble hopes that, boosted by the victory of the Yes campaign, his authority will be enhanced, particularly among the activists.

As one Unionist source put it: "The great unanswerable question remains who represents the feelings of the Ulster Unionist activists: the rebel MPs or David Trimble? After all, he won a healthy endorsement from the Ulster Unionist Council [made up of the party's key workers]".

For the nationalists, the elections represent a new opportunity but strengthens the prospect of rivalry between Sinn Fein and the SDLP.

Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein president, lost no time yesterday in proposing an electoral pact, something about which Mr Hume was less than enthusiastic. Not only would this give disproportionate advantage to Sinn Fein, it would split the SDLP.

Among those who would be most opposed is the SDLP's deputy leader, Seamus Mallon, who last week appealed for Ulster Unionists to cast their second preference votes to his party rather than the DUP in the assembly election.

One way or another, the mould of Northern Ireland's politics is about to be broken.