Vince Cable: ‘Theresa May will fight the next election – it serves a lot of people’s interests to have her there’

While we wait for a new centre party, how will the old centre party do in today’s elections? Our chief political commentator spoke to Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat leader

‘They could have simply quietly accepted staying in the customs union: it is perfectly compatible with Brexit’ (Getty)

Vince Cable was not in favour of overstating things when I met him at the Liberal Democrats’ HQ across Parliament Square from the House of Commons last week. Would his party’s opposition to Brexit help in the local elections? “It’s helpful in some areas, but I wouldn’t overstate it.”

Did he think a Labour breakaway might force a realignment of the centre of politics? “I won’t say it’s likely but it’s possible. I’m not overstating it. I think people are getting a bit excited at the moment.”

No one could accuse Sir Vince of getting carried away. He predicted modest net gains in Thursday’s elections, but pointed out the party is defending huge majorities in Eastleigh, Sutton and South Lakeland.

He said the Lib Dems had “worked hard to ensure European nationals can exercise their vote”, and he said there are a number of areas where traditional Tory voters are disgusted by Brexit.

On Brexit itself, he said he was “genuinely baffled” by Theresa May’s government’s resistance to a customs union: “They could have bought off an awful lot of business opposition. They could have simply quietly accepted staying in the customs union: it is perfectly compatible with Brexit.”

It wouldn’t leave Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, with much to do, I said: “Well, that’s not a terribly powerful reason for persisting with it.”

How seriously did he take the threats from hard Brexiters of resignations? “I’ve always assumed that the Brexit people would almost stomach anything to get past independence day, but they’re making quite a good impersonation of people who will do silly things.”

Assuming Brexit happens, would the Lib Dems become the party of re-entering the EU? He was cautious: “That is a debate we’ve got to have if Brexit goes ahead. We haven’t had it yet. I do recognise the practical problems … You would have to make the case for Europe on a different basis. We don’t know whether it would include monetary union – probably not – but it would be used in the argument.”

He would rather stick with the pre-Brexit debate – “now is the time to take avoiding action” – but I wanted to know if he thought our actual departure from the EU would finally unfreeze British politics and allow a new centre party to form. “There are 33 new parties registered in the last few months,” he said. “The only one people pay much attention to is one individual who claims to have lots of money. I haven’t met the guy. So I’m not sure how serious this stuff is. We are the party occupying that space at the moment. I have an open mind about how we would work with other people. It doesn’t have to be in any particular form. I’ve been through the SDP history, so I’m well aware of the pitfalls and the positives of that.

“So if we do get a substantial breakaway from the Labour Party, then, yes, post-Brexit realignment might happen. There are all kinds of scenarios and I don’t want to be dogmatic about them.”

He insisted that there is a gap in the market: “Whether or not Jacob Rees-Mogg is head of the Conservative Party, certainly his soulmates will be, and the Labour Party is now very firmly under the grip of the Corbynites. So there is ample opportunity for a party that is liberal and social democratic, which is what we are.”

Something else that might disrupt politics would be another recession. He is famous for having predicted the last one. Is another one due? Again, overstatement is not his style: “There’s a reasonable possibility, two years down the track, that things might get very difficult. What’s happened in the US is clearly unsustainable. Running a pro-cyclical deficit on a massive scale and protectionism: it’s a lethal combination. There are these recent signs that the resurrection of the eurozone probably wasn’t as vigorous as we had hoped so there may be trouble there; and, when Britain is struggling with post-Brexit transition, you can see a constellation of quite difficult things.”

On the other hand, he does not expect the political landscape to change that much. When I asked which Tory leader he expected to be fighting at the next election, he said: “I think Theresa May actually. She’s got a lot more stamina, and it serves a lot of people’s interest to have her there.” Would Tory MPs really risk another campaign under her, I asked. “Well, if she digs in and says, ‘Come and get me,’ she’d have to do something pretty bad to be pushed out. I don’t know.”

A politician refusing to overstate things and admitting he didn’t know the answer to a question? The Liberal Democrats certainly continue to be different.