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May's Brexit deal could survive the loss of a few junior ministers but if one of the ‘big five’ walked out, she would be in deep trouble

The agreement is good news for May. However unloved it is in her own party, its very existence will transform the Brexit debate – potentially in her favour

Andrew Grice
Wednesday 14 November 2018 13:11 GMT
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The parliamentary arithmetic is perilous for May
The parliamentary arithmetic is perilous for May

When Margaret Thatcher was fighting for survival as prime minister in 1990, she called in her cabinet ministers for one-to-one meetings to try to win their backing in the second round of a leadership election against Michael Heseltine. Their verdict was that her time was up, and she resigned at a cabinet session the following day.

Theresa May appears to have enjoyed more success last night, when she summoned ministers with doubts about her Brexit deal for individual meetings in Downing Street ahead of this afternoon’s special cabinet session.

May’s goal was to keep on board the cabinet’s famous five: Dominic Raab (after David Davis’s resignation she couldn’t afford to lose another Brexit secretary), Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and attorney general Geoffrey Cox. His legal advice will be crucial when ministers judge whether the UK would have the right to leave the temporary customs arrangement under the proposed backstop to prevent a hard Irish border.

About half the cabinet has grave reservations about the withdrawal agreement negotiated by UK and EU officials – over the customs backstop, the European Court of Justice’s role in it, Northern Ireland having a different customs and single market regime to the rest of the UK and the EU’s demand for a “level playing field” on environmental, social and state aid rules. There are also fears that the political declaration about the future UK-EU relationship will give the EU27 the whip hand when a detailed trade deal is hammered out over the next few years. Brussels is already hinting that the customs arrangement will be the starting point. May has a lot of reassuring to do today.

The prime minister could survive the loss of relatively junior ministers like Penny Mordaunt or Esther McVey, but if one of the big five walked out, she would be in deep trouble, as it might spark an exodus. She would then be in the same position as Thatcher was. However, the early signs are that most cabinet ministers will accept the deal, even if through gritted teeth.

The agreement is good news for May. However unloved it is in her own party, its very existence will transform the Brexit debate – potentially in her favour. She finally has something to sell, and plans to start a media blitz tonight. Many business figures will support the deal; they are desperate to secure the 21-month “status quo” transition which will avoid a no-deal exit in March. The pound will rise if there is momentum behind the agreement. In turn, this would probably persuade some Tory MPs to swallow their doubts and vote for it.

Despite that, several ministers believe that May will not be able to cobble together a majority in the crunch Commons vote on the deal next month – which begs the question: should they really support it?

The parliamentary arithmetic is perilous for May. My best guess is that 20 hardline Eurosceptics and five pro-EU Tories who want a Final Say referendum will vote against it. The most ominous sign for May when news of the deal broke last night was DUP MPs discussing tactics in parliament’s Central Lobby with Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker and other members of the European Research Group (ERG). If the 10 DUP MPs (and 25 Tories) vote against the deal, May would need the backing of 30 Labour MPs to save her bacon. Some Labour figures might be swayed by the momentum for a deal, the EU27’s backing for it and May’s warnings that the only alternative is to crash out without an agreement. But 30 Labour votes is a very tall order: 15 is more realistic. (Abstentions would change these numbers, but not May’s predicament).

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If the ERG’s call for a cabinet mutiny fails, it may well press the nuclear button and trigger a vote of confidence in May as Tory leader. Yet another hurdle for her to clear. Her fate then would depend on how the deal had landed. Tory MPs could kill it by voting against May and ending her premiership. But securing the necessary 159 votes – a majority of Tory MPs – might be hard at such a critical moment. Some Tories would worry that they might also kill Brexit, and so reluctantly stick with May to "get it over the line" in March.

The dramatic Commons vote might not be end of the matter. Some ministers think May will lose, but then defy political gravity by refusing to resign, asking the EU to tweak the deal and then returning to parliament for a second vote and scrapes over the line because enough MPs are spooked about a looming no-deal departure. I wouldn't rule it out.

“The endgame,” as May called it, is only just beginning.

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