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Is no-deal Brexit dead? Depends which Tory minister you’re talking to

Yet something like 600 MPs are against no deal and would dump it tomorrow if they could

Sean O'Grady
Friday 15 February 2019 11:59 GMT
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Andrea Leadsom begins the Brexit debate with a Valentine's Day poem

Never mind the Brexit “deal”; how’s no deal going?

As usual with Brexit, it depends who you ask. Alistair Burt, an oldschool Europhile foreign office minister: “We are not leaving without a deal. If you want to leave, you’d better agree on one. In the next fortnight would help.”

Clear enough. But Andrea Leadsom, leader of the house of Commons, and well-known Leaver, rather contradicted him shortly after he spoke, saying that no deal is “absolutely” still on the table: “The government does not want no deal, but it is there because that is the legal default position, and any competent government must prepare for all eventualities.”

Business minister Richard Harrington is openly talking about quitting if “no deal” became policy. Other ministers, up to and including the cabinet, have let their similar sentiments be known (including the chancellor, Philip Hammond, work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd, justice secretary David Gauke and business secretary Greg Clark).

On the other side, the likes of Leadsom have let it be known that they would quit if no deal is ruled out. Michael Gove, though a conviction Leaver, is thought to be terrified of no deal, and the prime minister... ? According to her chief EU negotiator, Olly Robbins, she’d rather delay Brexit than leave with no deal. One of her spin doctors said the same thing the other week; that she already rules out no deal, but can’t say so in public. I heard that on Radio 4.

So let’s concentrate on what is really clear and plain fact. No deal has to be kept “on the table” so that Theresa May can threaten people – soft Labour MPs, in every sense – with it. Time is her only reliable ally in this war, and, as is apparent, she is running down the clock to make the choices for MPs starker and more urgent. Her strength is her stamina. She is gambling that at some point they will throw the towel in, and enough of them on either side will find themselves in a bizarre inchoate alliance to approve her withdrawal agreement because they dislike the alternatives more. A majority of one would be sufficient. She will, as is also clear, promise anything and bribe anyone to get what she wants.

Another thing that is plain is that this game of chicken could go wrong, and we’d leave the EU with an accidental Brexit on the worst possible terms. It’s not supposed to go this way, and it would deliver a hard border on the Irish border within weeks, but accidents do happen.

The question is how and when no deal will be taken off the table. Will it be when the Commons votes for her deal? What if it refuses, again? What if other options, such as delaying Article 50 or a second referendum remain on the table, and seem more attractive? What if parliament “takes back control” over the negotiations? What if the EU refuses to extend Article 50, or only does so on condition there is a democratic consultation, such as a referendum or general election?

There are 650 MPs in the House of Commons. Of them, only somewhere between 30 and 100 would be prepared to countenance no deal, and a few would positively welcome it. That means that something like 600 MPs are against no deal and would dump it tomorrow if they could. There is a Commons majority of 500+ against no deal (give or take, leaving aside the speaker, Sinn Féin, eccentrics and suspended MPs). It would be strange indeed if such an overwhelming majority wasn’t able to make its voice heard and its views effective. As May says, they should keep their nerve, but at some point they will need to act, before it is too late, even if means splitting the cabinet and fracturing the government.

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A final irony. As is not stressed often enough, the Commons is not being asked to vote on a deal or no deal – but only half a deal. The proper UK-EU deal does not exist. There is the divorce deal, the UK-EU withdrawal agreement, and a “political declaration” about a future trade and security deal, but that’s all. At best, then, we have part of a deal. So even if no deal is rejected, and the withdrawal agreement is approved, MPs will still have only agreed on the less important bit of the UK-EU trade deal.

The choice, in other words, is actually between no deal and half a deal (or a second referendum). There is no comprehensive deal to vote on.

Clear?

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