I made a lot of political predictions in 2019 – and I learned something important from what I got right, and wrong

The gap between triumph and disaster for the Tories was narrow once upon a time. I didn’t realise how drastically things would turn around for the party

When the election came, I was pretty sure Johnson would win it (PA)

Now is a good time to look back and try to learn from what I got wrong in 2019. I made a lot of predictions, not all of which were right.

Early in the year, for example, I thought Britain was never going to leave the EU. I thought the hung parliament would be permanently blocked. The Conservatives, without their own hardline Eurosceptics and the DUP, would not have a majority for their Brexit. Labour would not be able to put a majority together for a referendum. And nobody would want to vote for an election.

I misjudged Boris Johnson’s political skill. I thought his promise to get Britain out of the EU on 31 October, come what may, would lead to humiliation when it was the key to the opposite. It was a symbol of intent, not a promise.