After another antisemitism crisis, the Labour Party is closer than ever to a split – and this is how it could happen

Labour centrists believe that Corbyn allies are out to deselect independent-minded MPs, and now they are preparing to break away

Jeremy Corbyn’s apology, for hosting a Commons meeting in 2010 at which the main speaker compared the Israeli government to the Nazis, will not end Labour’s damaging controversy over antisemitism. Corbyn has allowed what should have been a storm in an egg cup to build into a full-scale crisis.

At the very least, it is an abject failure of political management. For this (rather than the travails of a government flailing round over Brexit) to fill the summer news vacuum, tells us something about Labour’s priorities. Many voters, not just members of the Jewish community, will surely see a party which prefers to contemplate its own navel than to state its case for running the country.

Corbyn was right to apologise for sharing platforms in the past “with people whose views I completely reject” in pursuit of justice for the Palestinian people and peace in Israel-Palestine. But, at the time of writing, he has not yet forced his long-time ally Pete Willsman, who dismissed Jews complaining about antisemitism as “Trump fanatics”, to stand down from Labour’s national executive committee. Willsman has apologised, but even Corbyn allies are calling for him to be dropped.

There’s a pattern here: Ken Livingstone, another left-wing soulmate, avoided expulsion by Labour for two years after claiming Hitler supported Zionism in the early 1930s, and was allowed to jump before he was pushed.

Corbyn could end this saga by promising to incorporate in full the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s widely-accepted definition of antisemitism and all its examples in Labour’s code, while adding safeguards about the right to criticise Israel’s policies.

In itself, the antisemitism controversy will not cause Labour to split. But it could contribute to such a breakup.

In recent weeks, I’ve been struck by the number of centrist Labour MPs prepared to envisage life outside Corbyn Labour. Antisemitism is not their only concern. Some pro-EU MPs are furious that Corbyn has not opposed Theresa May on Brexit more vigorously. Others believe his instincts on foreign and defence policy make him unfit to lead the country; some of them would stand down rather than campaign for him to be prime minister at the next election.

There was a moment when Corbyn could have killed off talk of a split by being a consensual leader prepared to unify Labour’s broad church. After his brilliant performance at last year’s general election, some Labour MPs admitted they had hugely underestimated him, and acknowledged his right to lead the party into the next one.

But now Labour centrists believe that Corbyn allies are out to deselect independent-minded MPs who might not toe the line in a minority Labour government. They contrast the failure so far to act against Willsman with the disciplinary action threatened against the MPs Margaret Hodge and Ian Austin, who criticised the party’s response to the antisemitism allegations. Rule changes expected to be approved by Labour’s annual conference next month will cement the left’s grip on the party machine, diluting the power of MPs in leadership contests and drafting the election manifesto.

Three options are being discussed by Corbyn’s critics. The first is a declaration of independence from Corbyn Labour by a sizeable chunk of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). They could elect their own leader. If they eventually mustered a majority of Labour MPs, they could stake a claim to be the official opposition – perhaps as “Real Labour”.

The second option is the more frequently cited route of launching a new centre party. Raising money would not be a problem, but our archaic first-past-the-post system would present a major hurdle. Although the Social Democratic Party almost broke the mould of British politics after its leaders walked out on Labour in 1981, it is remembered in Labour land for failing to do so.

The third option is for Labour centrists to join the Liberal Democrats. Vince Cable, their leader, is less tribal than his predecessors and would welcome them with open arms. Mind you, he would not welcome the reverse take-over envisaged in the minds of some Labour MPs.

For now, I suspect the most likely shape of any breakaway is the PLP option. And it is not certain to happen.

It would be a massive step; the left of the party would brand the centrists “bitter Blairites” who were aiding the Tories. To make it viable, supporters would have to win over Labour MPs who favour sitting on their hands until the Corbyn tide goes out (which might be a very long wait). The PLP is fragmented; anti-Corbyn MPs have different motivations, not least on Brexit. For that reason, any breakup will probably not happen ahead of the critical Commons votes before next March.

Team Corbyn rightly frets about a split. Not because it fears that his critics would sweep the board, like Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche!, but because a breakaway party could split the anti-Tory vote.

Such a scenario is no longer idle chatter by dreamers; a growing number of Labour MPs think, as one put it, that “something’s gotta give”. It might yet become a nightmare for Corbyn.