Theresa May loses another battle – but she may be zigzagging towards winning the Brexit war

The PM seems to have been persuaded to tack towards her soft-Brexit wing by a group of ministers who are threatening to resign 

John Rentoul
Thursday 14 February 2019 20:02 GMT
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Government suffers significant defeat on Brexit motion: MPs divide by 303 votes to 258 with close to 100 Tories abstaining

Theresa May has suffered another embarrassing Brexit defeat in the House of Commons, and given Jeremy Corbyn the chance to taunt her for running away from the chamber before the result was announced.

The Labour leader was justified in suggesting the prime minister’s approach to leaving the European Union was incoherent. She is zigzagging between appeasing the Eurosceptic wing of her party and trying to keep her soft-Brexit ministers from resigning.

But there may be method in May’s incoherence. The hidden significance of today’s vote was that she lost it because she zagged towards the soft Brexit faction. Instead of tabling an anodyne motion for which both wings of her party could vote, she asked MPs to “reiterate the approach to leaving the EU expressed by this House on 29 January”. That meant endorsing the votes of that day. One of them was to “reject leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement” – and leaving without a deal is precisely what many Tory Eurosceptics want to do.

May seems to have been persuaded to tack towards her soft-Brexit wing by a group of ministers who are threatening to resign if the government heads towards a no-deal exit. Inevitably, by trying to keep those ministers on board, she lost about 50 Eurosceptic MPs off the other side of the seesaw.

But this is important because it contradicts the usual Labour allegation that May is a prisoner of her hard-Brexit backbenchers and always gives in to them. This time, she went the other way and lost the vote as a result.

The vote doesn’t affect anything, except government morale and the UK’s image abroad. The one amendment that could have had an effect was proposed by Anna Soubry, the pro-EU Tory rebel. She wanted the government to publish cabinet papers on the economic effect of a no-deal Brexit. She was persuaded to withdraw her amendment but promised to table it again in two weeks’ time.

It doesn’t look good, but Theresa May’s tactic of playing for time continues. Corbyn said, when the vote was announced: “She cannot keep running down the clock.” But that is precisely what she will do. She will zigzag from side to side, alternately keeping the hard Brexiters and the soft Brexiters on board, until finally she – and they – have to choose.

The Eurosceptics think they made a show of disciplined force today, by abstaining in sufficient numbers to ensure the government was defeated by a majority of 45. But the weakness of their position is only becoming clearer. There are not enough of them to force the UK to leave the EU without a deal. At some point the large majority in the House of Commons opposed to a no-deal Brexit is going to assert itself.

The next decision point will come in two weeks, when Yvette Cooper, the real leader of the opposition, is likely to bring back her plan to legislate against leaving without a deal. This time she is likely to succeed. Then the Tory Eurosceptics will find the no-deal option shut in their face and they will have to decide whether to back the prime minister’s deal – with whatever cosmetic amendments have been agreed in Brussels by then – or to allow parliament to seek to delay Brexit.

Then Theresa May’s zigzag may finally end, and she might even get her deal through.

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