The Grand National: an annual foray into the unknown made harder by an ever-changing field

For years you could pick an older horse with pedigree and back them to stay the trip but the Grand National is changing

The Grand National returns this Saturday (Getty)

The Grand National is, for many, an annual foray into the unknown for horse racing and the only time they will bet all year.

In that sense it is one of racing’s worst attractions, with 39 losing horses out of 40 and the inevitable couple of horses that don’t survive the marathon trip. But the engrossing nature of the slog, of dozens of horses flying over fences roared on by a nation, ensures that the Grand National remains one of the nation’s favorite sporting pastimes.

For years you could pick an older horse with pedigree and back them to stay the trip but the Grand National is changing and the last three have been won by younger challengers, with fresher eight-year-old and nine-year-old rides reigning supreme.

Four miles remains a very long way and with the ground likely to be soft it is going to be difficult enough without carrying too much weight. It is why the much-fancied pairing of Minella Rocco and Blaklion are difficult to back as their chances have been dented by the handicapper.

Both, however, have had wind operations since their last run which often bodes for improved performance. If you’re not scared off by the weight then Blaklion is a horse to dabble in, while the Last Samuri, who Blaklion beat in the Becher Chase, also deserves respect.

If you’re trying to examine the trends as so many do, then Tiger Roll and Gold Present both feature prominently as potential winners. The former is fresher than rivals and boasts impressive wins that suggest he won’t struggle with the course or ground. Gold Present might have been a better bet with less rain but Nicky Henderson’s up-and-comer merits consideration.

And if you want a bigger-priced fancy then look no further than Vieux Lion Rouge, who could turn around a nightmare season for David Pipe by winning the big one.

A 33-1 shot, Vieux Lion Rouge came sixth last year as a much-fancied 12-1 runner, seventh the year before and won the 2016 Becher Chase. He has also beaten many of the best-supported horses in the national, including Blaklion. With kinder weights, he’s a value each-way bet.