Manchester United still confident of qualifying for Champions League but history suggests otherwise

United 'do not expect two consecutive seasons of non-participation in the Champions League', as per financial report

Last week, Manchester United published their financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year, up to the end of September. This was not a hugely significant update as it came only a few weeks after the 2019 end-of-year results, but there was an eye-catching line contained within the interim report submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

It is common knowledge that the 10-year, £750m deal with kit manufacturer Adidas will be cut by 30% if United do not qualify for the Champions League in two consecutive seasons. Having missed out last year, United risk a reduction – by around £23m – if they finish outside of the top four or fail to win the Europa League this season.

With United currently ninth in the Premier League table, the first of those is beginning to look unlikely. Nevertheless, according to one line contained within the report, the club is not overly concerned. The Adidas revenue is not expected to take a hit, they write, “as management does not expect two consecutive seasons of non-participation in the Champions League.”

If this reflects the club’s position from the end of September, when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side had taken just nine points from seven Premier League games, it is defensible. At that point, there was still much of the season left to run. But if it is still the position now in late November, after only four league wins and with United nine points adrift of fourth-place Chelsea, it feels wildly optimistic.

The interim report predates last Sunday’s 3-3 draw away to newly-promoted Sheffield United, but hopes of finishing in the top four have looked increasingly remote for some weeks now. United welcome another newly-promoted side – Dean Smith’s enterprising Aston Villa – to Old Trafford this weekend and only three points will do if they intend to make up ground on Chelsea and Leicester City.

History is against them. United have 17 points after 13 games. Over the last decade, no team to finish fourth in the Premier League has taken fewer than 20 points by this stage of the season. Those who sneak into a Champions League spot have picked up an average of 26 points by now – a full nine more than United. Solskjaer and his players are currently well off the pace.

Their target should be 76 points, which is almost certain to guarantee Champions League football. No team has ever taken that many and failed to finish inside the top four, though 72 or more tends to be enough. Manchester City came fourth in 2015-16 with 66 – the lowest top-four total of the last decade. But United are currently projected to finish still well behind that, with only 50 points.

This is all faithfully reflected by the bookmakers, who mostly consider Chelsea and Leicester odds-on to finish top four. FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model only rates United’s chances at around 8%. And even if Chelsea and Leicester slip up between now and May, United are not necessarily best-placed to take advantage. Tottenham Hotspur look reinvigorated under Jose Mourinho and drew level with United on points last weekend.

The Europa League offers Solskjaer an alternative route into the Champions League and a way around the Adidas clause, just as it did for Mourinho three years ago. But United’s prospects in that competition will largely depend on which teams drop into it from the Champions League next month. Valencia, Inter Milan, Red Bull Salzburg or even Liverpool would all be testing opponents in later rounds.

For that reason, FiveThirtyEight’s model actually believes it is ever-so-slightly more likely that United qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top-four rather than winning the Europa League. Whatever the permutations and probabilities, one thing is clear: it is going to be difficult.

There is, in fact, every reason to expect “two consecutive seasons of non-participation in the Champions League”, despite the optimistic tone of the interim report. United’s prospects look bleak and they will only change if Solskjaer can turn results around quickly, starting this weekend.