Trump campaign: Four years ago he slid down an escalator and changed America forever – but it’ll take a lot more to win in 2020

Analysis: Plenty have written president off but election is his to lose

Four years have somehow slipped past since Donald Trump, failed businessman and wildly successful reality television star, slid down those shimmering escalators in New York to declare that he was running for the White House.

At the time we had little idea how Trump, wearing a white shirt and bright red tie, and with both thumbs aloft, would change America’s presidential politics. Heck, people were not even sure he was really going to run. Maggie Haberman, an admired reporter at The New York Times, had been offered a scoop on his announcement. But aware of Trump’s previous toe-dangling in the waters of presidential races – namely in 1987, 2000, 2003 and 2011 – she decided to wait and see if he was serious. “I’m not doing this again until the day he declares.”

Quickly it became apparent that the Donald Trump of 2015 was serious about running, and that lots of voters were attracted by his brash swagger, a rhetoric that was frequently racist, and a promise that he alone could fix America’s problems.

“Our country is in serious trouble,” he told the crowd assembled in the base of Trump Tower, as Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” blasted on the speakers. “We don’t have victories anymore. We used to have victories, but we don’t have them.”

As Trump officially launches his re-election bid, things are rather different. The 73-year-old is no longer the outspoken insurgent, but the outspoken chief executive, a president who has has endured numerous scandals and outrages, and seen his approval rating stay at a historic low. Polls suggest any number of the two-dozen Democrats lining up to take him on would defeat him.

Because of this, Trump needs to operate more strategically than in the seat-of-the-pants campaign that won him the Republican nomination, and then the White House. Reports suggest somebody in Trumpworld has already thought about this.

The New York Times said this week the president has $40m (£31m) in his campaign coffers and hopes to raise up to $1bn. By contrast, Barack Obama had just $2m at this stage.

This has allowed Trump’s staff working in the same offices occupied by the Republican National Committee in northern Virginia, to triple the list of 10m voter contacts his operation had at the end of the 2016 election. By election day, the paper said, they hope to have increased that to 50m. Already, Trump is outspending all of rivals in online advertising.

Some people have already written Trump off. Wounded by the two-year investigation into alleged collusion with Russia by Robert Mueller, abandoned – if the results of the 2018 midterms were an indicator – by many of the women voters who voted for him in 2016, and with polls showing him down in key states such as Pennsylvania, some Trump haters are already rubbing their hands in the belief he will be a one-term president.

The evidence, such people say, is all around. Last week, Trump fired several pollsters after the leaking of internal White House information showing the president trailing Joe Biden and others.

They also point to Biden’s clear ability to get under Trump’s skin, and his responding by coming up with a new nickname – “One per cent Joe” – for the man the president’s advisers fear could represent the biggest threat in appealing to the white, blue-collar voters who helped him in 2016.

This would be unwise. The most obvious thing Trump has in his favour, so obvious it is frequently overlooked, is that unless former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld – the only Republican primary challenger – pulls off a miracle, Trump will be the party’s nominee.

Much has been written of the disenchanted white working class who voted for Trump in 2016, but so did millions and millions of other people. Wall Street bankers voted for him, college-educated women voted for him. Evangelical Christians turned out in huge numbers, as did social conservatives. It is true, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 3 million, but 60 million Americans voted for a man many considered a joke.

Many of those are delighted by his presidency, something overlooked in the bubbles of liberal outrage. They loved the massive Republican tax cut; they loved the rolling-back of environmental protections to help business; they loved the fact he met with Kim Jong-un; they are proud the man they voted for is standing up to China, even if the tariffs personally hurt them in the short term. Crucially, they are happy Trump stuck to his word and appointed two conservative justices to the Supreme Court, as many states start to roll back abortion rights and look to challenge Roe v Wade.

It remains to be seen if Trump can do anything to enlarge his base and draw new people to the polls. If not, we’re likely to see a brutal battle in which he focusses on rallying that 40 per cent or so of Americans who remain steadfast to him. Would this be enough to get him over the line? Perhaps: do not underestimate the advantage of being the incumbent. One-term presidents are a rarity in the US.

What are the betting chances of Trump being re-elected? Nobody knows, especially so far away from November 2020, with the Democrats not even having picked a candidate, and with no idea as to the nature of the economy next year.

There are a million uncertainties, a million doubts, but right now, it feels the election is Donald Trump’s to lose.