Pete Buttigieg is soaring in Iowa, but does he have what it takes to challenge for the presidency?

South Bend mayor’s campaign repeatedly hit by controversies over race relations

Pete Buttigieg hops onto the stage with a grin.

The speakers are blasting out High Hopes, by Panic! At the Disco. There is a small but respectable number of people in the crowd, especially given that a snow storm has just set in.

It’s natural Mr Buttigieg might be smiling. In addition to leading the polls in Iowa, a new survey published earlier in the day had seen his national position leap from fourth to second. The poll by Quinnipiac University put him on 16 points, second only to Joe Biden, and soaring past fellow Iowa frontrunner Elizabeth Warren, who tumbled to just 14 points from 28 last month.

Mr Buttigieg insists his campaign was not guided by polls, but it is not difficult to imagine his pleasure at pushing past the Massachusetts senator, who along with Mr Biden appears to be the most frequently mentioned Democrat to take on Donald Trump, or whoever else might be the Republican president next November. Another poll published on Tuesday showed him placed second in New Hampshire, which votes straight after Iowa.

“We try not to get too caught up in the polls, but it’s encouraging to see the continued momentum,” says Mr Buttigieg, who has taken off his jacket, but is otherwise dressed in what has become his 2020 campaign outfit: a dark or navy suit, with a navy tie and white shirt. “We’ve felt it on the ground for some time ... But we know, right now is the time [to get] our heads down, to keep working and getting the message out.”

In truth, the mayor of South Bend cannot afford to stop working for a second. With his campaign constantly having to respond to controversies over race relations in Indiana, and polls showing his support among some African Americans to be virtually non-existent, it is currently difficult to see how he could capture the party’s nomination, let alone the White House.

Another poll by Quinnipiac University found his support among African American voters in South Carolina, which has a large black population and is the third state to vote, measured at zero. He has just six endorsements from black or hispanic elected officials; Mr Biden has 154.

Studies have shown African Americans, in particular African American women, are the US’s most reliable voters. No Democrat could win without them.

“Black women are the canaries in the mine. We know what can befall the community if we elect the wrong person,” says Christina Greer, associate professor of political science at Fordham University in New York. “We know if it’s bad for white women, it’s terrible for black women. If it’s bad for white men, we know it’s horrendous for black men.”

Asked why the 37-year-old polled so low among black voters, she says it may be because they do not yet know him very well. She says what they do know is related to those controversies during his two terms as mayor: the firing of a black police chief; a video that went viral this summer of him telling a black protester “I am not asking for your vote”; and the shooting dead of a black man by a police officer, the incident that people were demonstrating about.

On Tuesday, Mr Buttigieg faced more controversy when The Root published an article headlined “Pete Buttigieg Is a Lying MF”. The article, written by Michael Harriot, attacked the candidate over comments he made about black students from poor neighbourhoods who he said struggled because they did not have sufficient good role models.

“Kids need to see evidence that education is going to work for them,” Mr Buttigieg said during a forum in 2011. “There are a lot of kids, especially, the lower-income minority neighbourhoods, who literally just haven’t seen it work.”

The Root article pointed out Mr Buttigieg had attended “the best private schools in the country”. Speaking to reporters, and later in response to a question from a member of the public, he claimed he had learned from those remarks, and the way they were presented. He revealed he had also contacted the author of the article to discuss the issue for just under 20 minutes.

“What I said in that comment before I became mayor does not reflect the totality of my understanding then, and certainly now about the obstacles that students of colour face in our system today,” he says, speaking at Cronk’s Cafe, a diner, unchanged by time, in the town of Denison.

“I want to make sure I communicated that I’m very conscious of the advantages and privileges that I have had, not through any great wealth but certainly through education, through the advantages that come with being white and being male.”

Later, he is asked if he believes the controversies over race relations will ever leave him, or if they threaten to prevent him securing the nomination.

“I welcome that it is a topic of conversation, and an opportunity for us to share what we have got right in South Bend, what has come up short and what we will learn from,” he says.

Mr Buttigieg has positioned himself as a practical centrist, and sought to present himself differently to more ideologically rigid progressives, such as Mr Sanders and Ms Warren. A number of observers believe he is counting on Mr Biden eventually dropping from the race, and of him being able to tap into the support of those moderates.

As a result, while he wants there to be universal healthcare, he wants people to have the choice to enter a government-operated scheme, or keep their private plan. He has also questioned whether the costing plans to provide free education for college students, put forward by Ms Warren and Mr Sanders, add up.

Jean Ulmer, 80, and her 83-year-old husband are squeezed into the small space at Cronk’s Cafe, and they say they liked Mr Buttigieg’s energy.

“We have not made our minds up who we’re going to vote for,” they say.

In Sioux City, Christy Valentine says she’s attending her first ever political event. “I liked what I saw on TV. He seems to be cool, calm and collected.”

Asked if the fact Mr Buttigieg was gay would count against him in some communities, she says “possibly”. “It’s very conservative around here.”

At the heart of the military veteran’s stump speech, there is line about the day America wakes up after Mr Trump’s final day in office. The line usually receives cheers, but Mr Buttigieg also uses it to highlight the work that will lie ahead for whoever enters the Oval Office.

It is likely the country would be even more divided, and that major problems presently confronting the nation and the world – climate change, a skewed economy – would still be there to address.

“Just think what would be required from the president that day,” he says. “We’re going to need to have big ideas, but to work in a way that is not divisive.”