What is happening with Brexit this week and will Theresa May get her deal through parliament?

A third 'meaningful vote' seemed certain, but is now in huge doubt - meanwhile, there is an EU summit looming

With just 11 days to go until Brexit was supposed to take place – and still will, according to the legal position – what will be the key events this week?

* Will there be a third ‘meaningful vote’ in the Commons on the Brexit deal?

At the weekend, it seemed certain that Theresa May would make another attempt to ram through her agreement – but No 10 now says there must be a “realistic prospect” of success.

The chances of a vote on Tuesday are fading. There is then a deadline of 7pm on Tuesday for tabling a motion for it to take place on Wednesday – or there will be no vote until next week, after an EU summit.

* What has changed?

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has yet to swing behind the deal, which also bolsters the resistance from hardline Tory MPs in the European Research Group.

Unless the DUP changes its mind, the government would be heading for the disaster of another huge defeat, having lost by 149 votes last week?

* Will the DUP – and rebel Tories – cave in?

Talks between ministers and the Unionist party are ongoing, but it is sticking to its red line that Northern Ireland cannot be treated differently from the rest of the UK in the exit deal.

After the official legal advice accepted the UK could still be trapped in the Irish backstop – potentially introducing border checks in the Irish Sea – the prime minister has an uphill task.

Meanwhile, 23 anti-EU Conservatives have signed a letter insisting they will never vote for the deal. A further seven pro-EU Tories opposed it last week.

* What else can Ms May do to win the vote?

Well, there’s always throwing hard cash at Northern Ireland – which the chancellor has declined to rule out. There is even talk of cutting air passenger duty as a carrot.

Meanwhile, some Tories have suggested they could back the deal if the prime minister agreed to quit immediately afterwards, so a different leader can embark on the trade talks. She was said to be “surprised” by the suggestion.

* What happens if there is no meaningful vote – or it is lost?

The prime minister says she will be forced to seek a “long” extension of Article 50 at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday, which MPs would then vote on next week.

It is unclear what “long” means, but it could be nine months or as long as 21 months – allowing the UK to carry out future trade talks with the EU as a member, rather than in a ‘transition period’ outside the bloc.

* What about the European Parliament elections in May?

Downing Street insists the UK would have to take part, if Article 50 is extended beyond the end of June. And MPs would have to vote to reinstate the unpopular elections.

This is still a powerful card to play – so expect a ‘meaningful vote 3 (or 4)’, just days before the 29 March deadline if necessary, and a final arm-twist on MPs.