Most voters believe government should allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to decide on UK membership after Brexit, poll finds

Britain-wide survey finds only minority of voters think Boris Johnson should block referendums

Britain’s voters are ready to let Scotland and Northern Ireland choose whether they wish to remain part of the United Kingdom following Brexit, a new poll has suggested.

The BMG survey for The Independent found significantly more voters than not believe that the government should permit an independence referendum in Scotland and a border poll in Northern Ireland.

The Scottish National Party’s leader in Westminster, Ian Blackford, hailed the findings as “significant” and said they showed it would be “unacceptable” for Boris Johnson’s government to attempt to block a second independence vote.

And former Northern Ireland secretary Lord Hain said the results confirmed his concern that Brexit could hasten the break-up of the UK.

The poll of 1,504 people in England, Scotland and Wales found that 45 per cent believe the government should allow a second independence referendum north of the border, against 30 per cent who thought it should be blocked. When don’t knows are removed, the split is an emphatic 60-40 in favour of permitting a referendum. There were majorities in favour of permitting a poll in England, Scotland and Wales and among supporters of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party, while Tory voters were split 44-42 against.

On the question of whether a border poll should be permitted after Brexit to allow Northern Ireland to decide whether to remain in the UK or join the Republic, the result was an even starker 52 per cent for allowing a referendum against just 19 per cent for blocking it. When don’t knows are removed the margin is 73-27.

Lord Hain said: “Brexit, especially a hard Brexit, is a green light to Scottish nationalists to push for a referendum, and similarly for Irish republicans.

“I’ve always been fearful that Brexit would make the break-up of the UK more likely, and this poll confirms it. We’ve already seen in other surveys that Tory Leave voters want Brexit even if it means Scotland and Northern Ireland leaving the UK.”

Nicola Sturgeon has said she intends to table a formal request before Christmas for the power to stage a new referendum, and the issue is set to be a central plank of the SNP’s campaign in the expected snap election.

But Mr Johnson said during a visit to Scotland that he did not see why he should “go back” on the result of the 2014 referendum, which delivered a 55-45 per cent margin in favour of staying in the UK.

Responding to the BMG findings, Mr Blackford said: “This is a significant poll for the independence movement, showing a majority of people across Britain – not just Scotland – believe that Scotland should have the choice to decide its own future.

“From this poll it’s clear that it should be up to the people and parliament of Scotland to decide whether there should be another independence referendum – not a detached and broken Westminster system.”

Boris Johnson tries to manage a bull at a farm near Aberdeen this month (PA)

He added: “Scotland faces a serious and growing threat from Westminster. Throughout the Brexit process we have been completely ignored. The past three years have underlined the rising and unsustainable cost to Scotland of not being independent.

“It is no wonder that support for independence is at record levels. The people of Scotland deserve the choice of a better future than the Brexit Britain being imposed upon us against our will.”

The BMG study did not include the views of people in Northern Ireland, but a recent survey by pollster Lord Ashcroft found the outcome of a border poll would be on a knife-edge, with 45 per cent saying they would vote to stay in the UK and 46 per cent to join the Republic.

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (BBC)

The DUP’s MP for Belfast East, Gavin Robinson, said, “Northern Ireland’s future is best served inside the United Kingdom for economic, social, cultural and historic reasons.

“The criteria for holding a border poll are clearly outlined and have not been met. However, the focus should not be on holding a divisive border poll and creating further community tension in Northern Ireland.

“We want to see the Northern Ireland assembly and devolved institutions restored so that decisions can be taken on schools, hospitals and the other vital public services which everyone relies on.”

BMG questioned 1,504 adults in England, Scotland and Wales between 3 and 6 September.