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How important is the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election?

Politics Explained: A win for the Lib Dems today will be a significant gain for Remainers, and for all those opposed to a no-deal Brexit

John Rentoul
Wednesday 31 July 2019 20:21 BST
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Chris Davies has been behind the Lib Dems’ Jane Dodds in polling
Chris Davies has been behind the Lib Dems’ Jane Dodds in polling

If the Conservatives lose the seat in Wales, as expected, it will reduce Boris Johnson’s majority to just one. Together the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party will hold 321 seats, while other parties and independent MPs will hold the other 320.

The position isn’t quite as precarious for the new prime minister as it seems, however. In most cases, Johnson will be able to rely on the support of Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover, who had the Tory whip removed this month when he was charged with sexual assault, an accusation he denies.

The reason Jeremy Corbyn held back from tabling a motion of no confidence in Johnson’s government last week was that it was certain to be defeated: in addition to Elphicke, Sylvia Hermon, the independent unionist MP, voted with Theresa May in the last vote of no confidence in January, and Ivan Lewis and John Woodcock, former Labour MPs, abstained.

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