Things are looking good for China’s manufacturing output – but don’t get too excited, the economy may still struggle

The switch from euphoria to despair has been astonishingly swift and we should be suspicious of anyone who expects confidence to come back fast, writes Hamish McRae

A worker disinfects machines at a factory in Lianyungang in China's eastern Jiangsu province (AFP)

Is the turning point in sight? We all desperately want it to be, but rationally it is not. Cases and deaths in Europe and America will continue to rise for some weeks yet, and even when they start to fall, it will take a long time for the economic damage to be repaired. In human terms, sadly, there is damage that can never be repaired.

Yet financial markets sense that something is happening. You can see that shares have recovered from the despair of 10 days ago. Over the weekend, JP Morgan put out a note saying that it thought the market had hit bottom. Earlier this month, filings showed that Warren Buffett had increased Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings of a number of stocks, including Delta Airlines. Seeing as he was extremely cautious in the run-up to the crisis, building up a $126bn (£100bn) cash pile, and has been through half a dozen or so serious bear markets, this is another signal of a turning point.

But that is just opinion. What about fact?