How likely is a Final Say referendum on Brexit now?

With a no-deal Brexit on 31 October extremely unlikely, there are now two possible routes to a people’s vote

Marchers demand a Final Say referendum in London (Angela Christofilou/The Independent)

A second referendum on Brexit is becoming more likely again. Or, at least, the probabilities may not have changed much in the past week but they can now be seen more clearly. The most likely outcome this month is that the date of our planned departure from the EU will be postponed by another three months.

In fact, two things have become clearer. One is that Boris Johnson is unlikely to secure a deal that is acceptable both to the EU and to a majority in the House of Commons. The other is that if he cannot get a deal he will send the letter asking for an extension that he is required to send by the law passed by parliament.

The idea that the prime minister would find some way around the law has finally met reality in the form of a government submission to the Scottish courts. There shouldn’t have been any doubt that the UK government would respect the law, and now there isn’t.