Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Wales vs Argentina betting tips:
Wales were made to work hard for most of the match against a tough Georgia team in their Pool C game last weekend but they powered away for a comfortable win when dominating the game in the last 10 minutes.
The latest Rugby World Cup odds suggest they will have the upper hand over Argentina in Saturday's quarter-final match in Marseille.
Victory over Georgia came at a hefty price for the Welsh though, with their No 8, Taulupe Faletau, suffering a broken arm and is now out of action for the rest of the World Cup.
There are also concerns over the fitness of fly half Gareth Anscombe, who had to withdraw before the Georgia game after suffering a groin injury in the pre-match warm-up.
Both were hugely influential in the 40-6 win over Australia, but the blow has been softened as Dan Biggar is available for the match against Argentina.
Wales have options for the No 10 shirt and have made the move to shift Aaron Wainwright to No 8 to replace Faletau as Tommy Reffell comes into the side at openside flanker.
Argentina have grown in stature as the World Cup has progressed and after a tame defeat against a moderate-looking England side, they have looked more convincing in each game since.
The victory against Japan was a hard-fought affair but Argentina were deserving winners come the final whistle.
The winner of the match will face either Ireland or New Zealand in the semi-finals and both teams will want to go into that testing match with confidence on a high, so there could be fireworks.
The total game points market looks set too low
Most UK bookmakers have set the over/under market at 44.5 points in the match.
Taking out World Cup minnows Portugal and Chile, Wales and Argentina have conceded an average of a little over 19 points each per game and have averaged over 30 points each on the scoring side.
It is always difficult to know quite how the game will pan out, but we suspect it will be something of a battle of attrition for the opening 20 minutes or so before mistakes begin to creep into the play of both sides.
It is not unreasonable to predict 15-20 points in the first half and when things open up in the second period, the points could quickly build.
Wales alone scored an average of over 35 points in their four pool games, with Argentina close to 32 points, and the favourites must have a realistic chance of getting near to that mark.
Argentina will surely have penalty opportunities along the way and it would be no surprise to see in-form wing Mateo Carreras run in a try or two.
Forty-five points or more looks achievable and if Argentina fail to play to their full potential for the whole 80 minutes, the Dragons could run riot towards the end of the match.
Tip: Match to be over 44.5 points - 10/11 with bet365
Wales capable of bridging four-point gap
The handicap has generally been set with Wales -4.5 points at 10/11 and the same price for Argentina with a 4.5 head start, but SpreadEx are out on a limb offering 9/10 with Wales giving up 3.5 points.
Wales are as short as 4/9 to win this quarter-final clash and a victory margin of five points or more looks achievable. Their points difference from the pool games is far superior to that of Argentina.
The Pumas are always a tough team to beat, but going on overall recent performances they do not look up to matching the Dragons when the going gets tough in the second half of the match.
If Wales win, it would be surprising if it was by less than five points and a winning margin of 10 points or more would not really be out of line when considering the way they have performed in the pool games, especially against Australia.
The Welsh have their problems with injuries but Argentina will have key players missing as well, and these setbacks could cancel each other out. As such, we're backing Wales to cover the -3.5 points handicap.
Tip: Handicap No Draw - Wales -3.5 points 9/10 with SpreadEx
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
